Can the Golden Globes Predict the Academy Awards?

Awards season is upon us and it’s an exciting time. Will our favorite films and actors win? Will we be disappointed? Will someone have the wrong card and read out the wrong winner? You can’t ever know what’s going to happen! Or can you?

With the Golden Globes happening before the Academy Awards, predicting the winners can be much easier – depending on the category. Some are seemingly guarantees while it’s the complete opposite with others. For example, leading actor and actresses are typically winners at both the Globes and the Academy. In fact, in the past 5 years the best actors and actresses have won both a Globe for Drama and an Oscar. But there’s a bit of a wild card. Best Film. It’s never a guarantee that the Best Drama Film at the Globes will also win an Oscar.

This year at the Globes, there were many acclaimed films up for the top spot. Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, or A Star is Born seemed to be a guarantee surrounding the hype for the films. But instead Bohemian Rhapsody won Best Drama Picture. The film that currently has a 62% on Rotten Tomatoes won the coveted spot. A surprise to say the least. So with this now being a higher contender than previously thought, does it have a true shot at winning an Oscar?

Let’s compare Golden Globe winners to the Oscar winners in the past 5 years. In 2014, 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. It also won the Golden Globe for Best Drama film. That makes the predicting pretty easy. In 2015, Birdman: Or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) won the top prize for the night. But the film didn’t win a Globe, despite it being up for nomination in Best Comedy or Musical. In 2016, Spotlight took home the glory but lost at the Golden Globes. In 2017, Moonlight won both Oscar and Globe to much praise. But in 2018, The Shape of Water won Best Film and lost at the Globes.

So two out of the five films won at both Oscars and the Globes. What does that tell us about the odds of winning Best Drama Film and Best Film? Unfortunately, not much! It appears that there is never any guarantee on which film will come out on top for the Academy Awards but it’s incredibly fun to guess! And, if the Best Actor category keeps up the trend, Rami Malek will be taking home the Oscar on February 24th.